The High Ball Screen Podcast- NFL Over/Under Win Totals- 8/22/16

The High Ball Screen Podcast is back! Sean and I get ready for the 2016 NFL season by picking giving our over/under win total picks for all 32 NFL teams.

Time Stamps for each division:

AFC East- 1:05

AFC North- 17:50

AFC South- 34:20

AFC West- 45:45

NFC East- 52:00

NFC North- 1:00:15

NFC South- 106:35

NFC West- 1:15:20

Directions for listening to the podcast- Those signed into google can listen through music player for google drive. Otherwise, click the download file option on the first page, and the download anyway option on the next page.

High Ball Screen Podcast- NFL Win Totals Edition- 8/22/16

The High Ball Screen Week 13 NFL Preview- Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks and Forecasting the Rest of Week 13

By Shea Raftus

Twitter: @RealSheaTheone

Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks

Houston +3 at Buffalo
The Texans defense is playing at an extremely high level, giving up less than nine points per game since their debacle at Miami in week seven. The Texans are also first in third down defense and sixth in yards per play, which are two of the most important stats that go into truly measuring how good a defense really is. Buffalo’s offensive line has been awful lately, and a matchup with a defense that is playing as well as any in the league right now does not bode well. Plus, I think Houston overall is just playing better right now. Getting points is a bonus here. Houston 20, Buffalo 13

Denver -4.5 at San Diego
I think it’s pretty evident that Denver is just better with Brock Osweiler at this juncture. He’s more mobile than Peyton and has the arm strength to push the ball down field to keep safeties honest, which has opened up Denver’s previously non-existent running game since Osweiler took over. The Chargers are still banged up all over the place, particularly up front on the offensive line, which doesn’t bode well against the fierce Denver pass rush. And not only does San Diego have one of the worst home field advantages in the league, but do we really expect them to put together back to back good performances after a win over Jacksonville? Denver is just a much better team here, and swallowing 4.5 when the line should be much higher is a steal. Denver 27, San Diego 17

New York Giants +2 vs. New York Jets
This is a classic contrarian play here. Everyone loves the Jets this week after housing Miami. On the other side, everyone is down on the Giants after getting beat fairly soundly, despite what the score indicates, by Washington last week. But this is what Eli and the Giants do: When everyone bails on them, they come out and look like world beaters. The concerns about the Giants offensive line are fair, but I can counter with the fact that Revis being out for the Jets is just as big of a loss in this matchup, and Ben McAdoo’s three-step drop offense with quick passes can neutralize to a degree a mismatch up front. I love the Giants in this spot as a dog in a must-win situation coming off a loss. New York Giants 28, New York Jets 20

Seattle -1 at Minnesota
There are a number of reasons to back Seattle in this spot. First, Seattle is 22-4 under Pete Carroll in November and December, as his teams always seem to play their best ball late in the year. Second, Seattle’s offense has come alive as of late, and the offensive line, which had been horrific early on, has finally started to gel and has played much better over the last couple of weeks. Yes Seattle loss Jimmy Graham for the season last week, but I’m not sure that’s going to be as big a loss as some expect. The defense, while clearly not as good as the last couple of seasons, still has a number of playmakers, and I think this is a favorable matchup for them this week. Richard Sherman did a great job on Antonio brown last week, and I expect him to do the same to Stefon Diggs this week, and I’m not sure Teddy Bridgewater has the arm strength to beat the Seahawks defense over the top like the strong arms of Big Ben, Cam, and Carson Palmer were able to. Minnesota is a good team that is extremely well-coached who at worst will get a wild card spot in the NFC. But there are too many things going for Seattle to not take them here. Seattle 24, Minnesota 20

Kansas City -3 at Oakland
It’s always an excruciatingly terrifying experience to gamble on Andy Reid. But it’s hard to not love the Chiefs as of late. The Chiefs have not only won five in a row, but they’re also 5-0 against the spread in those games by an average of 17 points per game. Additionally, Reid is a sneakily good coach away from home, going 16-7 against the spread during his time in Kansas City and an 86-55 record against the spread on the road in his career, according to R.J. Bell from pregame.com. There is way too much to like about Kansas City here. I’ve gotten burned by Andy so many times, but I guess I just never learn my lesson do I? Kansas City 27, Oakland 21

The Rest of my picks for Week 13:

Cincinnati 31, Cleveland 15
Arizona 27, St. Louis 22
Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 23
Miami 28, Baltimore 26
Jacksonville 22, Tennessee 20
Chicago 20, San Francisco 15
Carolina 24, New Orleans 19
New England 31, Philadelphia 19
Pittsburgh 31, Indianapolis 24
Washington 17, Dallas 16

 

 

The High Ball Screen Week 11 NFL Preview- Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks and Forecasting the Rest of Week 11

By Shea Raftus

Twitter: @RealSheaTheone

Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks

Chicago +1 vs. Denver
I’ve seen places that have this game as Chicago -1 or as a pick ‘em. Either way, Chicago is the right side here. The trio of John Fox, Adam Gase, and Vic Fangio has been arguably the best HC-OC-DC combination in the league this year, getting the most out of a somewhat limited Chicago roster. Fox and Gase also know Denver’s personnel very well from their coaching days there, which I think will provide an additional edge in this spot. On the other side of the ball, Fangio is one of the best DC’s in the league, and he has to be salivating at the matchup against Brock Osweiler, who will be making his first career start this week. Backing an elite defensive coordinator against an inexperienced QB is about as sure a play as there is out there. Chicago 23, Denver 17

New York Jets -3 at Houston
What do we love to do at the High Ball Screen? Bet against the team that won on Monday Night football the week before. Not only are the Jets the better team here, but I also get a superior coaching staff with three extra days to prepare and rest. And let’s not overreact to what we saw on Monday night. The Texans offensively weren’t exactly lighting the world on fire, as it was more about them being the beneficiary of an Andy Dalton primetime special. Take the Jets and don’t look back. New York Jets 24, Houston 15

San Diego +3 vs. Kansas City
I think Kansas City is a better team, but I love the spot for the Chargers here, and I strongly dislike this spot for the Chiefs. Kansas City is coming off a huge win over Denver, while the Chargers are coming off a bye after a gut-wrenching loss to Chicago on Monday night. Even before the rash of injuries, the Chargers were limited personnel wise, but one thing San Diego does have is a good quarterback and a great offensive head coach in Mike McCoy, which can mask certain deficiencies and allow this team to overachieve. Despite all the injuries on the offensive line, San Diego has surprisingly gained the fourth most yards in the NFL, according to R.J. Bell from pregame.com, which is a testament to McCoy for being able to get the most out of his offense. Everybody loves Kansas City here, who’s reeled off three straight wins. But those three wins have been against a Landry Jones-led Steelers team, the awful Lions, and Peyton Manning doing his best Scott Tolzien impression. I love the Chargers as a contrarian play here. San Diego 27, Kansas City 24

Oakland -1 at Detroit
I think Oakland is a much, much better team here, and one has to think that this could be an overreaction to the last couple of weeks. The Raiders have lost back to back games, and Detroit is coming off their first win in Green Bay in 24 years. But Oakland went toe to toe with Big Ben and the Steelers at Pittsburgh, and I think they just lost to a better team in the Vikings. On the other side, I think the Lions coming off a gigantic win (and boy did they try everything they could to blow that game) will have a bit of a hangover effect here. Matchup wise, I also think Cooper and Crabtree can get much better separation against Detroit’s mediocre secondary than the Packers receiving core. Oakland 31, Detroit 21

Dallas -1 at Miami
Three reasons I love Dallas here, with the first two not being nearly as important as the last one: Dallas is a good road team, Miami is a mediocre home team, and ROMO is back!!!! In their last 30 games, Romo has played in 21 and been out with injury in nine. Their record with Romo playing is 16-5 during that stretch. Without him? 0-9. Make it 17-5 with Romo after this weekend. Dallas 28, Miami 24

The Rest of my picks for Week 11:

 

Atlanta 26, Indianapolis 24
Philadelphia 27, Tampa Bay 22
St. Louis 24, Baltimore 23
Carolina 27, Washington 20
Minnesota 23, Green Bay 21
Seattle 23, San Francisco 9
Arizona 31, Cincinnati 24
New England 27, Buffalo 17

 

The High Ball Screen Week 10 NFL Preview- Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks and Forecasting the Rest of Week 10

By Shea Raftus

Twitter: @RealSheaTheone

Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks

Tennessee +6 vs. Carolina
Sometimes it’s more about the situation than it is the matchup, particularly in a league like the NFL, where the gap even between the very best team and the very worst is minimal. There’s no doubt the Panthers are a much better football team than the Titans. In fact, gun to my head right now, I’d probably pick Carolina to win the NFC, even over Green Bay and Arizona. That being said, this is a tricky spot for Carolina and a favorable spot for Tennessee. The Panthers are coming off three straight home games, with two of them being in primetime, and the third against fellow Super Bowl contender Green Bay. Steve Fezzik of pregame.com noted this week how teams that play three straight home games tend to get extremely comfortable with their surroundings, and going from that familiarity to a place where they only play once every eight years in Tennessee can take much more of a toll than one might expect. Fezzik’s point is a good one, and not only do I agree with him on that notion, but I also think this is the perfect letdown spot for Carolina, as they go from playing three straight high profile games at home to below average team on the road as a heavy favorite. There’s also a lot to like for Tennessee here. The coaching situation there had a Joe Philbin-like toxicity to it with Ken Whisenhunt, who had gone 4-31 in his last 35 games a head coach. I don’t know if Mike Mularkey is the answer long term, but it’s clear that the team responds much better to him than they did do Whisenhunt, which can’t be understated. The Titans are also much better offensively with Marcus Mariota under center, as he had an impressive showing in a come from behind victory at New Orleans after being sidelined due to injury for the previous two weeks. Carolina wins straight up, but there are just way too many factors going for Tennessee and against Carolina in this spot to not take the points. Carolina 26, Tennessee 24

Jacksonville +6 at Baltimore
I absolutely love Jacksonville here. From a pure match-up stand point, the Jags match up well here with the Ravens. Jacksonville has invested heavily at the skill positions in the last few drafts, and it’s finally starting to show. Running back T.J. Yeldon has had a better rookie campaign than I’ve expected, and the Jags really do have a nice young receiving core with Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee, and Julius Thomas. And Blake Bortles, while still developing, as taken some promising steps forward in year two. Baltimore has no pass rush and one of the worst pass defenses in the league, which is a perfect situation for young quarterback like Bortles to have a great game with the explosive weapons he has on the outside. I’m not confident about picking Jacksonville straight up here, only because the Jaguars have lost thirteen straight road games straight up. But they will absolutely move the football on Baltimore’s porous defense and will be in a position to win at the end. One more stat that will make you feel good about taking Jacksonville here: Every Baltimore game this season has been decided by eight points or less, and their two wins have been by three points each. Jacksonville +6 is the clear play here. Baltimore 30, Jacksonville 29

Denver -6 vs. Kansas City
I’m not as high on the Broncos as a true Super Bowl contender as some. Peyton continues to look underwhelming, and it won’t get any better as the weather gets colder and his arm continues to deteriorate as the season goes a long. And as good as their defense is, I just don’t think it’ll be enough to carry them in January. That being said, I absolutely love Denver in this spot. Let’s start with the fact that Denver is 19-1(!) against division foes with Peyton Manning as their starting quarterback. It doesn’t get more dominant than that. The Broncos have also been dominant against sub .500 teams in the Payton Manning era, as the Broncos are 17-8 against the spread during that time, according to R.J. Bell from pregame.com. I also think this is a game where Peyton can make a few poor throws and Denver still covers. Kansas City’s offense was already limited even before the loss of Jamaal Charles to a season-ending injury, and Alex Smith reminds me of Matt Schaub circa-2013: Absolutely terrified to push the ball down field and has just lost all his confidence. Considering all that, I have hard time seeing Kansas City move the ball consistently on this elite Denver defense. Now some will counter with Andy Reid’s spectacular record off a bye, but I’d counter with a question to those people backing K.C. here: Have you ever bet on Andy Reid? It’s one of the most excruciating experiences you’ll ever encounter. Bill Simmons put it best: It’s like going out with some of your friends and telling yourself, “Oh I’ll just have a couple of drinks and head home.” Then you wake up the next morning in an unfamiliar with place with throbbing headache and an out-of-nowhere cough. Swallow the points here with Denver. Denver 23, Kansas City 13

Washington +1.5 vs. New Orleans
Eighty percent of the bets on this game are on New Orleans, and you know we love to go against the public, especially when we’re getting points. I also think Washington is being undervalued here. Their receiving core was extremely banged up until last week’s return of DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed. A road game against the best team in the league was a tough spot for them to return to action, even with the bye. Conversely, this is about the most favorable of a matchup to have, as the Washington gets the Rob Ryan and the league’s worst defense at home. Having those two guys back as receiving threats gives the Washington running game a significant boost, and I think the Redskins will have a lot of success running the ball in this game because of that. Now Brees and the Saints will get their points and move the ball, but I think Washington’s ability to control the tempo by eating clock while also running the ball effectively on a porous Saints defense will be the difference. Washington 30, New Orleans 27

Green Bay -11 vs. Detroit
I try to stay away from double-digit spreads when betting NFL games, but this was one was just too juicy to pass up. Detroit is an absolute mess right now, with the league’s worst record and the 31st ranked offensive line according to Pro Football Focus. The coaching staff and front office firings have confirmed the franchise’s chaotic state, and this could be the week the team quits on Jim Caldwell ala Joe Philbin and Ken Whisenhunt. On the other side, I have an angry Packers team coming off back to back tough road losses returning to the friendly confines of Lambeau Field, where Green Bay has played much better than they have on the road. I expect the Packers to keep the foot on the gas petal for most of this game, which leaves little chance for any kind of back door cover. And Detroit is a mind-boggling 0-24(!) at Lambeau in their last 24 games. Green Bay covers easily and wins big. Green Bay 38, Detroit 10

The Rest of my picks for Week 10:

2015 Record Against the Spread: 21-23-1
2015 Overall Record Straight Up: 82-45

Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 20
Tampa Bay 20, Dallas 19
St. Louis 23, Chicago 20
Philadelphia 27, Miami 22
Oakland 28, Minnesota 23
New England 27, New York Giants 26
Seattle 24, Arizona 23
Cincinnati 38, Houston 20

The High Ball Screen Week 9 NFL Preview- Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks and Forecasting the Rest of Week 9

By Shea Raftus

Twitter: @RealSheaTheone

Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks

Pittsburgh -4.5 vs. Oakland
I really like what I’ve seen the Raiders this year. Derek Carr has exceeded my expectations, and at least from what I’ve seen so far, he’s a viable long term answer for Oakland under center. They’ve also got a lot of nice young talent, and big picture I think their stock is going up not just this season but in the seasons to come. That being said, I think they could be in some trouble in this spot. The west to east travel for 1:00 eastern games is always tricky for west coast teams, and I’m not quite sure I trust a young Oakland team in this spot to play well enough to win on the road against a quality team coming off arguably the franchise’s biggest win in recent memory. Yes Big Ben didn’t have a great game last week against the Bengals. But Cinci defensively is no slouch, and I think he’ll be a little bit healthier this week, as Roethlisberger in the past has had a tendency to rush back from injuries a week or so early. The loss of Le’Veon Bell hurts without question. However, DeAngelo Williams is no slouch, as he’s been a proven quality back in the NFL for a handful of years. He’ll be able to get tough yards on the ground to keep defenses honest, especially with the explosive passing attack Pittsburgh has. And the defense for Pittsburgh, which many including myself thought they had too many question marks and holes, has not only played much better than expected, but are actually pretty good. Pittsburgh bounces back and covers the 4.5 here. Pittsburgh 31, Oakland 21

New York Giants -2.5 at Tampa Bay
One of my picks last week was the Giants +3.5, and the hook was just enough to give me the win last week in their shootout with the Saints, even with New York losing straight up by inexplicably butchering that game in the final minute. But the straight up result really makes this bet that much better here. The public overreacts to Tampa winning and the Giants losing, which gives me a much more favorable number here with New York. The Giants are an ultimate week to week team, and after losing last week with the Patriots on the horizon next week, I think the Giants play a little better and a little more desperate here knowing that they absolutely can’t fall to 4-6 heading into their bye, even in the mediocre NFC east. And this young Bucs team, while improved, still needs to learn how to handle success, as they’re 0-4 coming off a victory under Lovie Smith. I get the better team here in a favorable spot, and I don’t even have to swallow a field goal. New York Giants 27, Tampa Bay 20

St. Louis +2 at Minnesota
As more and more weeks go by, the more and more I’ve bought into the Rams. We know how good they are up front defensively, and Todd Gurley is one of the best young backs the league has seen in quite some time. There are still questions along the offensive line, and Nick Foles isn’t spectacular. But this Rams team knows who they are as a team identity wise, and I think their pass rush will give Bridgewater a ton of trouble this week. Yes the Vikings are 5-2. But they’re wins aren’t that impressive, and they really got outplayed by Chicago last week. The Vikings offensive line has played about as well as you could ask after losing Phil Loadholt and John Sullivan, their best two guys up front, for the season. But I think this is the week that unit finally gets exposed. The pass rush of the Rams gets a lot of pub, but they’re also elite at stopping the run, as they’re tied for fourth in yards allowed per attempt. Running lanes will be hard to come by for Peterson in this game, which means a lot of third and longs for Bridgewater against the fierce Rams pass rush. Not only do I think St. Louis is a better team, but I think they really, really match up well here. St. Louis 24, Minnesota 19

Carolina +3 vs. Green Bay
There’s lot to like about Carolina here. Green Bay’s poor rush defense was really exposed last week against Denver. They’re 26th in the league in yards allowed per attempt, and you better believe Carolina, who’s tied for second in the league in rushing, will continue to pound the ball effectively like they have all season. Aaron Rodgers has not played particularly well against the best two defenses he’s played this year (Denver and St. Louis), and it’s been established that there’s a drop off in his play away from Lambeau. I also think people are still sleeping on Carolina. This Panthers team reminds me a lot of the 2011 to 2013 49ers teams under Jim Harbaugh: Great defensively in the box with multiple studs like Kuechly, Thomas Davis, and Kawann Short, arguably the best interior offensive line in the league right now, and a physical running game to go along with a dual threat quarterback that is extremely hard to prepare for. The difference is that Cam can just physically make throws Kaepernick couldn’t in that three-year window, which opens up much more throws offensively, even with a below average receiving core. Those 49ers teams gave Green Bay fits, and I think this Carolina team will too. As good as Green Bay is, the fact that Carolina is getting a full field goal here at home is an absolute steal. Carolina 23, Green Bay 17

Atlanta -7 at San Francisco
Shea, why are you swallowing a full touchdown on the road with a team that’s lost two of its last three, with their only win coming against a team whose coach was 4-31 in his last 35 games as a head coach and just got fired three days ago??? Two words: Blaine Gabbert. We thought we’d never see this day again, the day where we would get to bet against Blaine Gabbert. Yet inexplicably here we are, and there’s no way I’m missing an opportunity this juicy that may not come again. Atlanta 31, San Francisco 10

The Rest of my picks for Week 9:

2015 Record Against the Spread: 19-20-1
2015 Overall Record Straight Up: 74-40

New England 38, Washington 17
New Orleans 31, Tennessee 24
Buffalo 26, Miami 24
New York Jets 27, Jacksonville 14
Denver 27, Indianapolis 24
Philadelphia 20, Dallas 19
San Diego 23, Chicago 20

The High Ball Screen Week 8 NFL Preview- Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks and Forecasting the Rest of Week 8

By Shea Raftus

Twitter: @RealSheaTheone

Last week was one of our strongest weeks of the season. We went 4-1 against the number, and we’ll look to keep that going this week as we reach the midpoint of the NFL season. Let’s get to it!

Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks

Miami +8 at New England
In addition to going 4-1 last week, I teased the Patriots but also took the Jets +8, giving myself a cushy middle by being able to cross both the 3 and the 7. It paid off big time with a seven point New England win, and I’ll be doing the exact same thing here on the Thursday night game. New England is banged up, particularly on the offensive line. Marcus Cannon, New England’s replacement for left tackle Nate Solder (out for the season), and defensive end Jabaal Sheard are out this week, while guard Shaq Mason and running back Dion Lewis are both questionable. On the flip side, I don’t know if interim coach Dan Campbell is a long term fit in Miami, but you can’t deny the Dolphins are playing much better under him. The offense is much more balanced, and the defense is finally starting to get the pass rush we all anticipated they’d have. New England still wins this game, because Brady is so hard to beat at Foxboro, where he hasn’t lost a game he’s played all four quarters in since the Ravens beat them in the 2012 AFC Championship Game. But a rejuvenated Miami team will play them tough. And even if they play well, the banged up Patriots on a short week will look to get out of this game as quickly as possible by getting very conservative late with a two score lead, leaving the backdoor wide open. New England 27, Miami 22

San Diego +3 at Baltimore
Here’s the deal about this game: These teams are very similar. Both teams are below average defensively with a non-existent pass rush and neither team has any sort of consistent running game. San Diego has actually played reasonably well on the road, giving the Bengals and Packers reasonably tough tests. But I think the biggest factor in this game is that Baltimore’s non-existent pass rush will allow Rivers to be much more comfortable, even behind a make-shift offensive line, to find open receivers, the one place San Diego has a clear advantage over Baltimore. San Diego’s receiving core is reasonably good, while the Ravens have Steve Smith and not much else. This is the type of game Rivers flourishes in, and it doesn’t hurt that Baltimore is coming off a short week either. San Diego 33, Baltimore 30

New York Giants +3.5 at New Orleans
I’ll keep it short and simple here: I think the Giants are a better team, Eli is due for a game where he’s just on fire, New Orleans is still 30th in the league in total defense, and I just can’t see this below-average Saints team winning three in a row. Getting points here with New York is a nice bonus as well. New York Giants 30, New Orleans 24

Green Bay -3 at Denver
If you take a closer look at Denver’s 6-0 start, you’ll see that they’ve only won one game against a team with a winning record, and their top ranked defense has feasted on mediocre to below average quarterbacks and some of the worst offensive lines in the league, a perfect combination for Denver’s bookend pass rushers and corners. That won’t be the case on Sunday night, as they’ll face one of the better offensive lines in the league along with one of the best quarterbacks at avoiding pressure and making plays in Aaron Rodgers. On the flip side, Denver’s offense is still bottom three in both total offense and rushing offense, and Peyton Manning continues to look awful, with an egregious 7 to 10 touchdown to interception ratio along with a completion percentage below 62%, the worst of his career. Green Bay has also shown the ability this season to not only win but also control games where their offense isn’t on fire (St. Louis and San Francisco in particular). I think that’ll be the case here, as I see value at under 45.5 here along with Green Bay -3. Some places even have the Packers at -2.5, and if you see those pop up as the next couple of days pass, take it without blinking. Green Bay 23, Denver 17

New York Jets -3 at Oakland
I wasn’t sure at first about this game, but the more I look at it, the more I really like New York here. Oakland is clearly improved all around, and Derek Carr is playing much better than I expected. But they haven’t faced a team like the Jets this season that is not only extremely physical but also committed to running the ball early and often. I think the Jets will control this game on both lines, as the pace and physicality of the Jets offense will be just too much for Oakland. New York Jets 26, Oakland 17

The Rest of my picks for Week 8:

2015 Record Against the Spread: 18-17
2015 Overall Record Straight Up: 65-35

Atlanta 35, Tampa Bay 20
Kansas City 19, Detroit 17
Minnesota 23, Chicago 20
Arizona 24, Cleveland 19
Houston 20, Tennessee 19
St. Louis 27, San Francisco 15
Cincinnati 28, Pittsburgh 24
Seattle 24, Dallas 22
Carolina 28, Indianapolis 20

The High Ball Screen Week 7 NFL Preview- Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks and Forecasting the Rest of Week 7

By Shea Raftus

Twitter: @RealSheaTheone

Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks

Carolina -3 vs. Philadelphia
One of our favorite things to do here at the High Ball Screen is bet against the team that won on Monday night football the week before. It’s time to believe in Carolina. Cam Newton has taken the next step as a quarterback, as he’s carrying a Carolina offense with little weapons outside of Greg Olson. And the defense, even without Luke Kuechly for three games, was playing at a high level. He’s back now, and the Panthers defense is now firing on all cylinders. The Panthers will be able to run the ball on a banged up Eagles linebacker core, and I’m still not a believer in Sam Bradford and the Philly offense. Bradford already has nine interceptions on the year, with three coming in the red zone, which could spell doom against a Carolina defense that has forced 11 turnovers, good for fifth in the NFL. Only swallowing three here makes this the best bet of the week. Carolina 28, Philadelphia 20

Indianapolis -4.5 vs. New Orleans
I don’t think Indianapolis is awesome. But they’re going to win the AFC South, and they’ve played much better in their last three games, two of them without Andrew Luck. Plus I think New Orleans is much worse, even after the Saints handed Atlanta their first loss last Thursday. The main reason I like the Colts here though is that I don’t think New Orleans has the personnel on defense to make Andrew Luck feel uncomfortable, especially at home. The Colts were able to move the ball reasonably well on New England last week, and I don’t think they’ll have any issues moving it against a shaky Saints defense. Indianapolis 31, New Orleans 24

St. Louis -6.5 vs. Cleveland
Yes Cleveland has covered their last three games. And yes they were at least a four point underdog in all three like they are this week. But this is about as favorable a matchup for St. Louis that you could ask for. Cleveland is dead last in rush defense this year, which will be extremely problematic against a team like St. Louis that you know will always be committed to running the ball. Todd Gurley has to be salivating at this matchup, as it wouldn’t surprise me if he went for a buck fifty on the ground this week. St. Louis will also be able to pressure Josh McCown with their elite defensive front, and we’ve seen how much of a difference there is between how McCown plays with and without a pass rush. The Rams also have an extra week to prepare, and don’t forget they played Green Bay reasonably well at Lambeau, as they were the first team to intercept Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau since 2012. Too many things going in the Rams favor not to not swallow the 6.5 here. St. Louis 27, Cleveland 13

New York +9 at New England
I’ve underestimated the Jets this year. They can only go so far with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, but there’s a reasonable amount of help around him for him to at least be reasonably competent. And that defense is the real deal as well. Todd Bowles’ super aggressive scheme is a perfect fit with one of the best back ends in the league, and they should be able to move Brady off his spot enough to at least make him human for parts of the game. I still like New England to win straight up, because I get the better coach and quarterback at home. But nine is just too much to swallow in a divisional game against a Jets team that continues to fly under the radar. New England 26. New York Jets 21

Minnesota -3 vs. Detroit
This game is a lot like the St. Louis/Cleveland game. Not only am I getting the better team here with Minnesota, but I’m also getting one of the best running backs in the league going up against a Detroit defense ranked 27th against the run. That alone is enough to take Minnesota. The fact that you only have to swallow three here against a 1-5 Detroit team makes it even better. Minnesota 27, Detroit 17

The Rest of my picks for Week 7:

2015 Record Against the Spread: 14-16
2015 Overall Record Straight Up: 56-31

Buffalo 16, Jacksonville 13
Washington 23, Tampa Bay 21
Atlanta 27, Tennessee 21
Pittsburgh 27, Kansas City 24
Miami 22, Houston 20
San Diego 28, Oakland 26
New York Giants 30, Dallas 27
Arizona 35, Baltimore 20

The High Ball Screen Week 6 NFL Preview- Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks and Forecasting the Rest of Week 6

By Shea Raftus

Twitter: @RealSheaTheone

Week 6 is just around and the corner and it’s time to hand out some more candy. We had a strong week 5 with a 3-2 record, and it could have been even better if Derek Carr didn’t throw the worst pick six in the history of western civilization late in the fourth against Denver. Time to keep it rolling with another strong week!

Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks

New York Giants +4 over Philadelphia
There’s a lot to like here with the Giants. First, I simply think New York is a better team. We’ve talked about how well Eli Manning is playing in Ben McAdoo’s system, and the same can be said for the defense as a whole under Steve Spagnola. Yes, Odell Beckham is questionable with a hamstring injury, and Prince Amukamara is out for at least two weeks with a pectoral injury. But the expectation is that Beckham will play, and even then, the Giants have proven so far this season that they can play well banged up, as they’ve dealt with a number of injuries thus far and yet could easily be 5-0. Plus, I still don’t buy into Philly. The Eagles are not an awesome home team, as they’ve covered only 12 of their last 37 home games, according to R.J. Bell from pregame.com. A couple of more nuggets from Mr. Bell that help my case here: The underdog in this series has covered 14 of the last 18 games, and Philly is only 6-23 against the spread when favored for the second week in a row. Giants not only cover but win straight up in Philly. New York Giants 27, Philadelphia 23

Arizona -4 at Pittsburgh
I’ve bet on Arizona three times this season and have won them all, and I love them again this week. Pittsburgh is below average defensively, but they’re particularly bad on the back end, which does not bode well for them this week against Bruce Arians’ aggressive passing attack. On the other side of the ball, I don’t buy into Mike Vick at all. He made a couple of plays late on Monday night so give him credit, but overall he’s played mediocre at best in the two games he’s started so far. The Cardinals defense is a significant step up from the two below average defenses Vick has faced, and the back end for Arizona matches up reasonably well with the Steelers’ strong receiving core. And we can’t forget about the Bruce Arians factor here. The Steelers called it a “retirement”, but don’t kid yourself, he was fired, and Arians will be extra motivated in this game to make a statement. Swallow the points and take Arizona here. Arizona 31, Pittsburgh 20

Miami +1.5 at Tennessee
There are a few reasons to like Miami in this spot, but there’s only one big reason why I’m confident in the Dolphins this week: Teams coming off a coach firing midseason have historically played much better the week after, and don’t kid yourself, Miami straight up quit on Joe Philbin. I don’t buy into Dan Campbell long term as a head coach, but the Dolphins short term and particularly this week will be much more focused and should play much better with the coaching change. Miami was the “sexy” team coming into the season (I feel like they’ve been that team for the last few seasons now) that many were picking as a surprise team to take the next step and make the playoffs, and I just didn’t buy them. But they’re still a team that can win seven or eight games or so and are better than their play has shown. And as bad as they’ve been, I still think they’re better than Tennessee, who although they’re improved at quarterback with Mariota, just have too many holes overall to win more than five or six games this season. If you need some stats to make you feel better about taking Miami here, the Titans have only covered two of their last 16 home games and five of their last 25 games total, and Ken Whisenhut is 4-28 straight up in his last 32 games as a head coach, according to R.J. Bell from pregame.com. Miami 23, Tennessee 20

Washington +6 at New York Jets
Strictly playing the number here. I think these two teams are fairly even, with the Jets probably being slightly better. But the Redskins have outgained four of their five opponents this year, and I think the Washington offensive line can neutralize the Jets stout defensive front to a degree. Both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kirk Cousins are bottom ten quarterbacks, and even with the Jets playing at home, I just can’t swallow that many points with a below average quarterback. The Jets win, but the Redskins cover. New York Jets 20, Washington 16

New England -10 at Indianapolis
This is the second straight week I’m swallowing more than a touchdown on the road with New England, and there isn’t even the slightest hesitation with doing so either. This is an ultimate F you game for the Patriots for reasons that have already been dissected by everyone ad nauseum. The Patriots have absolutely dominated the Colts in the Luck-Pagano era, and guess what? The Colts defense still blows. Take the Pats and don’t look back. New England 40, Indianapolis 17

The Rest of my picks for Week 6:

2015 Record Against the Spread: 13-12
2015 Overall Record Straight Up: 47-26

Denver 23, Cleveland 15
Cincinnati 27, Buffalo 13
Minnesota 26, Kansas City 23
Jacksonville 21, Houston 19
Detroit 17, Chicago 16
Seattle 20, Carolina 10
Green Bay 38, San Diego 17
Baltimore 22, San Francisco 20

The High Ball Screen Top 10: Ranking the Top NFL Teams- Week 5

By Shea Raftus

Twitter: @RealSheaTheone

For this week’s edition of the top ten, we’re going to take a look at each team’s x-factor outside of quarterback this season (because quarterbacks are pretty much always an x-factor in some way or form because of how valuable they are). Let’s get to it:

-As a reminder, the methodology behind by top ten is explained here in my week 1 rankings.

10. Buffalo Bills
X-Factor: Tyrod Taylor
Sorry I lied. I’m making an exception to my no quarterback rule in this column for the Bills specifically because the position was such a huge question mark coming into the season. He didn’t play particularly well in his last two games, but he came up big last week with a huge drive to win the game late at Tennessee. Taylor will miss this week’s game against undefeated Cincinnati with an MCL injury. You’ll find out just how important he is this week when E.J. Manuel struggles to move the ball on the Bengals defense.

9. Carolina Panthers
X-Factor: Josh Norman, Cornerback

With Luke Kuechly missing multiple games to a concussion, Norman has emerged as the star of the Carolina defense so far in 2015. Through just four games he already has four interceptions, tied for first in the league with Charles Woodson, and has returned two of those picks for touchdowns.

8. Seattle Seahawks
X-Factor: Tyler Lockett, Wide Receiver/Punt Returner
The rookie out of Kansas State has already showcased his skills as a returner, as he’s already returned both a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown this season. But Lockett is now seeing significant time in the slot as a receiver over the last two weeks. He’s been targeted nine times over the last two weeks and has racked up six catches for 87 yards in that time frame. Expect offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell to keep utilizing Lockett’s speed in the slot to make plays in space.

7. Denver Broncos
X-Factor: Chris Harris Jr., Cornerback
He doesn’t get the pub that Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, or even fellow corner Aqib Talib does. But I think he’s the best player on a talented Denver defense. His quick climb from slot corner to a full time corner on the outside, and to now a top five cornerback in the league, has been extraordinary. His pick six last week to seal the game at Oakland was about as close to a “Don’t forget about me” type of play as you can get.

6. New York Giants
X-Factor: Bob McAdoo, Offensive Coordinator and Steve Spagnola, Defensive Coordinator

I’ve loved what both of these coordinators have done this year. Eli is having one of his best seasons of his career in his second year in McAdoo’s system, which predicates on having a large amount of three step drops. This has allowed the Giants to not only get the ball in the hands of the Giants playmakers quick and often, but also neutralize pass rushes that try to take advantage of an offensive line that has been rebuilt and improved but still not where they want to be from both a health and a cohesion stand point. Justin Pugh has been able to move back to guard where he is much better suited, and once Will Beatty returns, it’ll take a ton of pressure off rookie tackle Ereck Flowers. The job Spagnola has done with the defense has been remarkable as well. Much like Dan Quinn in Atlanta, he’s elevated a defense with so-so talent to compliment an explosive offense.

5. Atlanta Falcons
X-Factor: Devonta Freeman, Running Back
We’ve talked for weeks about how new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has done a phenomenal job of putting his elite skill position players in favorable situations and matchups. No one on the Atlanta offense has benefited more from Shanahan’s system that Freeman. He’s tied for second in the league with 405 rushing yards, and leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns with eight. This is the most balanced offense Atlanta has had since in years, and it’ll pay big dividends down the road when they need to get tough yards in key spots on the ground late in the season.

4. Arizona Cardinals
X-Factor: Chris Johnson, Running Back
Many thought Johnson’s days in the NFL were numbered not too long ago. But he’s found new life in Arizona, as Bruce Arians’ offense is a perfect fit for Johnson’s skill set. With a healthy Andre Ellington returning to the lineup, Arizona will have a formidable one-two punch in the back field on an already explosive offense going forward.

3. Cincinnati Bengals
X-Factor: The Offensive Line
It’s been well-documented how different a quarterback Andy Dalton is with pressure compared to when he’s had time. Cincinnati’s plethora of playmakers definitely helps. But the real key has been the offensive line. Led by one of the best left tackles in the league in Andrew Whitworth, the unit has done an extraordinary job of protecting Dalton this season. The Bengals will continue to win games as long as the line keeps Dalton upright.

2. Green Bay Packers
X-Factor: James Jones, Wide Receiver
After getting cut by both the Raiders and Giants before the season started, Jones was brought back to Green Bay (where he played for the first seven years of his NFL career before signing with Oakland in 2014) to help replace Jordy Nelson. Jones has become a reliable target for Aaron Rodgers because of their chemistry and familiarity with each other, and has tallied 394 yards and five touchdowns through the first five games of the season.

1. New England Patriots
X-Factor: Dion Lewis, Running Back

After missing the entire 2013 season with a fractured fibula and failing to make a team in 2014, Lewis’ career has been resurrected in New England. Belichick has made a living off getting guys off the scrap heap and turning them into key cogs, and Lewis is just the latest diamond in the rust that he’s found. He’s effectively replaced Shane Vereen as Brady’s safety valve out of the backfield as a pass catcher and is one of the main reasons why the Patriots haven’t missed a beat offensively this season.

The High Ball Screen Week 5 NFL Preview- Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks and Forecasting the Rest of Week 5

By Shea Raftus

Twitter: @RealSheaTheone

Week 5 is here and it’s time to make the fine readers of the High Ball Screen some cold hard cash. This is the best I’ve felt about my picks all year. Let’s get right to it!

Uncle Shea’s Gambling Picks

Arizona -3 at Detroit
I feel like I’m stealing money with this line. Yes Arizona lost last week for the first time this season. But Todd Gurley’s coming out party might have caught the Cardinals off guard, and I don’t think they necessarily played that bad to be quite honest. That was more about St. Louis pretty much playing as clean a game as they have all year. The Cardinals also kicked five field goals, and I think Arizona is too good offensively for that to carry over. All the talk was about the intentional bat in the aftermath of Detroit’s Monday night game, but let’s not pretend like the Lions played all that well in that game. Before that final drive, the Detroit offense was only able to muster 3 points. And the offensive line is still a mess, as the Detroit front ranks dead last in Pro Football Focus’ post-week four offensive line rankings. The coaching discrepancy in this game is also huge. Detroit has looked like one of the most poorly coached teams so far this season, while Bruce Arians is currently a sure-fire top five coach. I just don’t see Arizona dropping two games in a row, and I only have to swallow three against a below average team. Arizona 31, Detroit 21

Cleveland +7 at Baltimore
I’m strictly playing the number here. Baltimore at home with the better coach and quarterback at home probably wins this game straight up. But this is way too many points to swallow for a Baltimore team that really isn’t that good. The loss of Terrell Suggs continues to hinder not only the Baltimore pass rush but the defense as a whole. And a receiving core that was already below average won’t have their only consistent threat in Steve Smith Sr. this week, who’s battling a back injury he suffered against Pittsburgh last Thursday. On the flip side, Cleveland has played very well in divisional games as of late, and running back Duke Johnson is finally starting to emerge as a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield. Cleveland was in a similar situation last week as a touchdown dog on the road against a mediocre team, and I expect them to have a repeat performance against a mediocre Ravens team that is getting way too many points here. Baltimore wins but Cleveland covers. Baltimore 22, Cleveland 20

Buffalo -2.5 at Tennessee
I apologize to the dear readers of the High Ball Screen (all five of you). Last week, I gave out Buffalo -5 at home against the Giants as one of my five picks, and as the hours went by after I posted it, I gradually talked myself out of it and went the complete other way. Not only did I end up taking the Giants, but I ended up winning a three team parlay with New York +5 being one of the three. Even after winning a nice handful of cash, I still felt bad about flip flopping after giving out Buffalo. So to make it up to you guys, I’m gonna ask you to double down on the Bills here. In terms of overall talent as a team, Buffalo, even with LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams out and Sammy Watkins questionable, has a significant talent advantage in this game. And I love Rex Ryan’s talented and aggressive defense going up against a rookie quarterback here. Buffalo is the NFL’s ultimate week to week team this year as I noted in my top ten rankings this week, and after a poor showing last week, it’s fair to expect a better performance this week. Even with the injuries offensively, I think the Bills because of how well they match up defensively against the Titans won’t have to score a lot anyway. The line dropping under a field goal was the icing on the cake. Buffalo 23, Tennessee 17

Oakland +4.5 vs. Denver
I talked this week about how Denver’s matchup against Minnesota was tailor made for the Broncos to have their first blowout win of the season, yet even after having a double-digit lead twice in that game, Denver failed to cover and needed a late field goal at home to hold off the Vikings. Yes Denver has been great in divisional games with Peyton, but this Broncos team isn’t nearly as good as the previous few versions. They were extremely fortunate to win their only divisional game this season, as Andy Reid single-handily blew their week two matchup at Arrowhead. I also think this Oakland team is improved. Derek Carr has played better than I expected so far, and it’s pretty evident that Amari Cooper is going to be a star in this league. I also love the spot Oakland is in here. Don’t be fooled by that Chicago game last week. Oakland was getting points on the road for the first time in forever, and the Bears with Jay Cutler returning were a classic letdown spot for this young Raiders team. I expect them to play much better at home this week, and you can’t ignore the Jack Del Rio factor either, who outside of John Fox knows Denver’s current personnel as well as any coach in the league after serving as the Broncos’ defensive coordinator for the whole Peyton Manning era. Oakland 24, Denver 23

New England -8.5 vs. Dallas
I know what you’re thinking: Why would I ever swallow more than a touchdown on a road team in an NFL game? It’s simple….I mean say it out loud: I get Brady and Belichick with an extra week to prepare against Brandon Weeden, who’s lost his last ten games straight up and against the spread. Take. The. Pats. New England 38, Dallas 20

The Rest of my picks for Week 5:

2015 Record Against the Spread: 10-10
2015 Overall Record Straight Up: 36-23

Kansas City 26, Chicago 13
Cincinnati 24, Seattle 20
Atlanta 28, Washington 20
Philadelphia 23, New Orleans 21
Tampa Bay 20, Jacksonville 19
Green Bay 30, St. Louis 20
New York Giants 31, San Francisco 12
Pittsburgh 27, San Diego 24